Diabetes Dateline
Fall 2006

Research News

High BMI Increases Diabetes Risk for Many Americans

Research by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assessing the impact of body mass index (BMI) on diabetes risk found that average Americans have a substantial probability of developing diabetes during their lifetime.

The average lifetime risk for diabetes is 20 percent for a normal-weight, 18-year-old man, increasing to 30 percent for overweight men, 57 percent for obese men, and 70 percent for very obese men, according to K.M. Venkat Narayan, M.D., chief of the CDC’s Epidemiology and Statistics Branch, Division of Diabetes Translation. Narayan presented the research at the American Diabetes Association’s Scientific Sessions in Washington, D.C., in June.

For normal-weight, 18-year-old women, the average lifetime risk is 17 percent, increasing to 35 percent for overweight women, 55 percent for obese women, and 74 percent for very obese women.

A BMI between 20 and 25 is normal; obese people have a BMI of 30 or higher. Nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults are overweight, and nearly one-third are obese.

Narayan and colleagues recently projected that 48.3 million people will be diagnosed with diabetes in the United States by 2050. Their estimate represents a 198 percent increase from 2005, when the number of people with diagnosed diabetes was 16.2 million.

Other CDC research found that people with pre-diabetes have a significantly higher prevalence of hypertension, abnormal lipid levels, and other markers for cardiovascular disease.

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NIH Publication No. 07–4562
December 2006